595
FXUS64 KHUN 291106
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
AFTER AN EVENTFUL OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAT CONSISTED OF AN AREA WIDE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GET SCOURED
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THANKS TO A WAKE LOW. EARLIER THIS MORNING,
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE LOW REACHED 30-40 MPH ACROSS NW AL
AND AROUND 20-30 MPH JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LATEST OBS
HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH IN STRONG GUSTS, BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP IS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NE AL.
HOWEVER, A NEW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS N MS AND
ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO N AL ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME IMPRESSIVE
CORES ALOFT WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN THESE CELLS
APPEAR ELEVATED. HIRES CAMS HAVE DEPICTED A WEST TO EAST LINE OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM MS INTO AL THIS MORNING THAT EVENTUALLY
DRIFTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS FOR
FLOODING THIS MORNING AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS FRANKLIN,
LAWRENCE, AND CULLMAN COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF MEMPHIS SWINGS THROUGH THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD A POSITIVE-TILT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH (INITIALLY ACROSS ONTARIO) WILL DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CONFIGURATION
WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF STRONG (45-55 KNOT) WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW PREDICTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD AXIS OF
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOMORROW. ANAFRONTAL RAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE TROUGH (AND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO ITS SOUTH) WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA (SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER) FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS A
DEEPENING LAYER OF NNE FLOW AND COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.
PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE
MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
RESULTING IN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT VORTICITY LOBE (ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC) WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY (THAT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY 12Z SATURDAY). AS THIS OCCURS,
ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION (INITIALLY OCCURRING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) WILL EXPAND QUICKLY
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, PERHAPS
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 50S
ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE M-U 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A STRONGER/REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL FALL MORE NOTABLY INTO THE U60S-L70S ON THURSDAY AND
FURTHER INTO THE M-U 60S ON FRIDAY AS SKIES BECOME OVERCAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOL RAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF
A SURFACE LOW (ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS) WILL END ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S (FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS IN THE M60S-L70S LATER ON
SUNDAY). SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE M-U 70S BY TUESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED IN THIS REGIME,
BUT SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY TUESDAY, WARRANTING VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS N AL AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER TODAY. UNTIL THEN VICINITY
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CLIP THE TERMINALS. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH CLOSE TO LUNCHTIME, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER
FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. CIGS SHOULD
ALSO BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BRINGING BACK VFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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