662
FXUS64 KHUN 292240
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH NASHVILLE TO THE SHOALS
METRO AREA INTO CENTRAL MS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST HAVE ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS
HAS ELEVATED MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND
WITHIN A 50-60KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILE. COMPOSITE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE THUS A BIT ELEVATED AS WELL, SO WE ARE WATCHING
SATELLITE AND RADAR CLOSELY. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM OVERNIGHT WAS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. FOR NOW, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WILD,
BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER IMPULSE
FLOWING EAST IN THE ZONAL 5H PATTERN WILL HELP TO INSTIGATE A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXPANDS A BIT NORTHWARD
THE TN VALLEY. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
ZONAL 5H FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL DAY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TEXAS
AND THEN THE GULF STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, PRIMARILY OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
IN THE TN VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAIN
AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. VERY LOW TO LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
ARE REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
CLIMBING INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH AL, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN TN
AND FAR NORTHWEST AL. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE TN RIVER, WITH 0.5-1.0 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOL RAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF
A SURFACE LOW (ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS) WILL END ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S (FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS IN THE M60S-L70S LATER ON
SUNDAY). SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE M-U70S BY TUESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED IN THIS REGIME,
BUT SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY TUESDAY, WARRANTING VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME LOW CHANCES OF -RA
MAY CLIP BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 03-09Z OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUNRISE, CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS OUT OF
THE NNE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP.24
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