889
FXUS64 KHUN 301647
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM CDT WED APR 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF AROUND 0.5" FORECAST
- A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
NNE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE THOUGH SHOULD STILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MAINLY
DRIER, BUT NOT MUCH COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. GUIDANCE HINTS AT WINDS RELAXING SOME LATER
THIS EVENING AND MAYBE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S DEGREE DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEFORE THEN. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM WHICH HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO BUILD NORTHWARD THOUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE.
GIVEN THAT THE EXPECTED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SUCH
DRY AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE FRONT OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES BEGINS TO
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AS A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THAT
STRETCHES FROM SE CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING ANY BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BECOME THICKER AND SOME RAIN MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. HIGHS DON'T REALLY LOOK TO REBOUND MUCH REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER LOUISIANA, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA BY THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST FORCING
WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY SHOWN EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THOUGH
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG AS WELL.
THUS, EXPECTING MAINLY SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA INTO GEORGIA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
QUITE COOL AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN MOST GUIDANCE ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
IN MOST AREAS. MORNING CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
(DESPITE SOME ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS) SEEN IN
GUIDANCE MAKE THIS LOOK REASONABLE. THIS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMAL HIGHS - THE MID TO UPPER 70S).
WITH A LARGER AND MORE DOMINANT HIGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE
FORECAST IN MOST GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, IF DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES DROP A FROST THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A TAD HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, COLD AIR ADVECTION (VIA NW FLOW ALOFT) WILL
KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT. FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES (MID TO UPPER 70S.)
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, INSTABILITY
DOESN'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A PERIOD OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...GH
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