167
FXUS64 KHUN 011107
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
607 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 919 PM CDT WED APR 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.5" ARE FORECAST.
- A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE TN VALLEY REMAINS SEATED IN A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AS THE COLD
FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND STORMS EARLIER THIS WEEK NEARS
THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ALOFT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NEARS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND TODAY, HELPING KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE WE SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER BEFORE SUNSET BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MS/AL GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT OF THIS ADDED FORCING, MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS OVERNIGHT WINDOW. THE LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL PRODUCTION SOMEWHAT,
BUT STILL THINK ANOTHER WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25" TO 0.5" IN MOST AREAS IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA, WITH SOME LOWER AMOUNTS PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, CLEARING THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THE
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE
THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE LOWER 40S BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD SLIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY ZONAL, BENIGN WEATHER
WILL COMPRISE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DOWN INTO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND, A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO TRAVERSE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ULTIMATELY, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TUESDAY EVENING
AND PEAK ON WEDNESDAY (40-60%). TAKING A LOOK AT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL, AMPLE BULK SHEAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWN BY GLOBAL MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW. WHAT
WE'LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION. IF IT SWINGS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MORESO DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, THERE LIKELY WILL BE HIGHER INSTABILITY THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE DEPICTING AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, IF IT'S LATER
(WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT) AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS, THEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS, RESULTING IN A LOWER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S COME TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, A COOL DOWN IS IN
STORE AFTER FROPA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY THEN FOLLOW BEYOND THURSDAY!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 05-08Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....CGA
AVIATION...25
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