955
FXUS64 KHUN 011914
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.5" ARE FORECAST.
- A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/40S.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WE HAD SOME CLEARING NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE STILL COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN TO MOVE
INTO LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER LATE THIS
EVENING, LIKELY AFTER 10 PM AND END AROUND 4 OR 6 AM ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TRENDING TOWARDS NEW GUIDANCE IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE. MODELS PUSH
THIS RAIN EAST OF THE AREA BY 6 AM. EVEN STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS SHOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY. EXPECT CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM MOSTLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW TRAILING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
DOMINANT COLD AIR ADVECTION, DESPITE SUNSHINE RETURNING, HIGHS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, ONLY REACHING THE 65 TO 68 DEGREE RANGE
MOSTLY. SOUTHERN TENNESSEE MAY BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO CLOUD
COVER, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME, MODELS DON'T SHOW REALLY LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS (BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOWER DEWPOINT ADVECTION). THE MAIN REASON TO
WATCH THIS IS FOR LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WE HAVE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 33 TO 38 DEGREE RANGE OVER MORE OF THE AREA INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA, FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER,
RIGHT NOW, TOO MUCH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS OCCURRING. IT WILL
BE VERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REGARDLESS. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 38 TO 43 DEGREE RANGE MAINLY, KEEPING FROST
CONCERNS AT BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WE WILL STILL BE IN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW ALOFT ON
SUNDAY. SO, WEAKER BUT STILL STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE. WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING NOT MUCH CHANGES, EXCEPT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AGAIN. WE SHOULD SEE MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WARMER RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. EAST OF I-65,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ONE
MORE NIGHT. FURTHER WEST, LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S.
ON MONDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THOUGH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A VERY STRONG AND LARGE
UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. THIS EXTENDS WSW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DESPITE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE REDUCTION IN INSOLATION.
FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT NBM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ENOUGH FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN NW
ALABAMA. THE MORE PERSISTENT AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. 30 TO
40 KNOTS OF SHEAR DOES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, SBCAPE
IS NOT REALLY SHOWN IN MOST GUIDANCE.
THIS FRONT SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW NOW OVER SE CANADA, A
STRONGER LOW AND MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THAT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD RE-ENVIGORATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. MUCH
STRONGER SHEAR IS SHOWN IN MOST GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS
THIS OCCURS. SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1200 J/KG.
LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AS WELL, MORE THEN 6.5 DEGREES/KM.
THUS, WE MAY SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
PROB30 BETWEEN 5Z AND 8Z WAS INCLUDED AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE LOW
POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA DROPPING CIGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR LEVEL LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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