891
FXUS64 KHUN 020752
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
252 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CDT FRI MAY 1, 2026
- A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/40S.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PATCHY FROST IN SOME
COOLER SPOTS ON SUNDAY MORNING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING PREVAILS
AND LOWS PRIMARILY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S - LOW 40S.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE ENFORCES A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES
TODAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN GUSTS COULD
REACH 20-25MPH. AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD
COVER WILL SOON BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE SUN WILL
RETURN AREA WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL
PICK UP THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH THAT
SYNOPTICALLY INFLUENCED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR CAA ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO
LOW 40S (TN VALLEY) INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR,
WELL BELLOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE MAY NEED TO WATCH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FROST TO OCCUR IN THE COOLEST SPOTS AS
DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE MID - UPPER 30S, THOUGH NOT A
WIDESPREAD CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TELL THE TALE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
CALM AND HIGHS STAY BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH FEW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SUBTLE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON, THIS WILL
START THE PROCESS FOR WAA AND MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE GULF,
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BEGINS TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
ZONAL. THIS SUBTLE CHANGE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT (INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS).
ON MONDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT SOME MORE CLOUDS, AS AIR PARCELS MAY BE ABLE
TO MORE EASILY CONDENSE AFTER SOME DAYTIME MIXING, ALLOWING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MORE SEASONAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AN ANOMALOUS COLD PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN, COURTESY OF A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS VORTEX HAS CREATED
LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH RESULTANT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO LATER MONDAY, LOWER THAN
NORMAL MEAN UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING WEST OF VANCOUVER WILL SLOWLY
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY. IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PART OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH
THAT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER-48 IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW IN THE ROCKIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AS IT TRAVERSES MORE TO THE EAST, THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL TAP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGION. CLOSER TO THIS
REGION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON MONDAY, INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ALSO BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEARING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL MODEL OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT WAS SUGGESTING
THAT SOME STORMS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIME COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN INTENSITY, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION ALSO BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED, WHICH CAN HELP ENHANCE OVERALL
STORM INTENSITY.
A COLD FRONT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX HANGING TOUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY, PRODUCING INHERENTLY LOWER HEIGHTS, AND A NW-N
SURFACE FLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WILL
BRING MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE LATTER WORK
WEEK.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DAILY TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF A NEW
WORKWEEK SHOULD BE A TAD MILDER, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE
LOWER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD SHOULD RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S, A
LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS OF AROUND 80. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THURSDAY, HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S,
AND IN THE LOW/MID 70S NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH SITES
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 20KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....SERRE
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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