291
FXUS64 KHUN 030519
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTY FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN TN/NORTHEAST AL.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
KY/TN BORDER, PRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH THE TN/AL IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER
AND NEAR THE GREATER WFO HUNTSVILLE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BECOMING THE RULE FROM THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS, NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING.
ON A LARGER SCALE, ANOMALY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN, COURTESY AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE WAS PRODUCING A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. 10 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S. AS
COOL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH, EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
FOR EARLY MONTH OF MAY, WITH LOWS TUMBLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE COLDEST SPOTS APPEAR WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AS WELL AS PORTION OF NE ALABAMA, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 38-40 DEGREE RANGE. THE LOWER END OF THIS
IS VERY CLOSE FOR EARLY SEASON FROSTING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.
COVERAGE OF ANY FROST THAT OCCURS NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
HEADLINES OR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GIVEN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS CONVERGING. IT HOWEVER APPEARS IT SHOULD BE
DRIER, THEREFORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
AFTER A CHILLY TONIGHT, ANOTHER COOL DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ABOVE NOTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE AREA, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. EVEN WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WEEK SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A NOT AS
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NE
ALABAMA, TO LOWER 50S NW ALABAMA. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S OR AROUND 80. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, AS
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGIONS FILTERS NORTHWARD, HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AGAIN SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. A STORM SYSTEM FORMING TO
OUR WEST, AND THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE, FROM DAYTIME
HEATING COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS OVER NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
COME MID WEEK A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRESPASS EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RIPPLING SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SURGE DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S MAKING FOR A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. RAIN CHANCES PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES HOWEVER PROLONGED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO PASS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING, LEADING TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR, HOWEVER THE ALREADY MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL WANE SIGNIFICANT AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD THE FRONT PASS
IN THE LATE EVENING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE FRONT PASS OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
INSTABILITY (AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME) LOOKS TO BE LACKING FOR
A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS AS
THIS FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER.
LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AS THE FAR NORTH PARENT LOW TAKES IT TIME SWINGING THE
TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS LINGERING ALONG THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION NEAR THE KMSL
TERMINAL. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO COVER THIS RISK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25
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