771
FXUS64 KHUN 030704
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTY FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN TN/NORTHEAST AL.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD AND CENTER
MORE OVER THE TN VALLEY TODAY, KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REFLECT THIS, WITH CURRENT
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR
SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TN.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR EARLY MAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A NOT AS
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NE
ALABAMA, TO LOWER 50S NW ALABAMA. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S OR AROUND 80. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, AS
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGIONS FILTERS NORTHWARD, HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AGAIN SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. A STORM SYSTEM FORMING TO
OUR WEST, AND THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE, FROM DAYTIME
HEATING COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS OVER NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
COME MID WEEK A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRESPASS EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RIPPLING SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SURGE DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S MAKING FOR A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. RAIN CHANCES PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES HOWEVER PROLONGED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO PASS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING, LEADING TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR, HOWEVER THE ALREADY MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL WANE SIGNIFICANT AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD THE FRONT PASS
IN THE LATE EVENING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE FRONT PASS OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
INSTABILITY (AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME) LOOKS TO BE LACKING FOR
A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS AS
THIS FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER.
LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY AS THE FAR NORTH PARENT LOW TAKES IT TIME SWINGING THE
TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, TEMPS WILL COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS LINGERING ALONG THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION NEAR THE KMSL
TERMINAL. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO COVER THIS RISK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25
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