880
FXUS64 KHUN 032343
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN
PROGRESS THAT WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S.
CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
AFTER SUNSET, BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND SSW WINDS
ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S IN THE EAST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST (WITH ONLY A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
WITHIN THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
(INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS, COUPLED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (M60S IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND U60S-L70S IN THE VALLEY).
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
BEGINNING THIS EVENING, AS A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. AN
INCREASE IN CIRROFORM DEBRIS CLOUDS (ORIGINATING FROM SMALL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY) IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THESE FACTORS
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S/NE TO LOWER 50S/NW. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG TONIGHT,
BRIEF FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE (PRIMARILY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE WATER SOURCES).
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (EXTENDING OFF A COLD CORE VORTEX IN THE HUDSON
BAY VICINITY) WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AS IT DEVELOPS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CAPTURE THE REMNANTS OF A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CA), WITH
DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION PREDICTED TO BACK TO
THE WEST AND STRENGTHEN TO 55-65 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A REGIME OF
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
AN OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH AND A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL
EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KS TOMORROW AND SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY TOMORROW (FEATURING HIGHS IN THE
M70S-L80S), ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, AS BOTH CAMS AND
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING
AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN AR BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
ITS REMNANTS BEGIN TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS TN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, IT MAY STILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST ONE (OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE) CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
(EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
OK/WESTERN AR) AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
30-40 KNOTS. THE INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO TRACK
EASTWARD RATHER THAN SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THEM MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND INITIATE NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION PRIOR TO 12Z WEDNESDAY (WARRANTING A
GRADIENT IN POPS FROM 40%/S TO 60%/N). IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 4-10 KFT MAY RESULT IN
PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
COME MID WEEK A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRESPASS EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RIPPLING
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LOW (10-30%)
RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, SSW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SURGE DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
MAKING FOR A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. RAIN CHANCES PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES HOWEVER PROLONGED OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO PASS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR, HOWEVER THE
ALREADY MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL WANE SIGNIFICANT AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD THE FRONT PASS IN THE LATE EVENING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE FRONT PASS OVERNIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, INSTABILITY (AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IN
TIME) LOOKS TO BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS AS THIS FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER.
LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AS THE FAR NORTH PARENT LOW TAKES IT TIME
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGERING ALONG THE BASE OF THE PARENT
TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WILL BUILD TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT DAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING S-SW
ON MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO THE LATE NIGHT. HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SHOULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE FORMATION OF FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS, FROM LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB
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