952
FXUS64 KHUN 040323
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEW WEEK, UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA, MAINTAINING A TROUGHING FEATURE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. A LOBE OF TROUGHING THAT WAS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION, WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY HANGING
OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL INCREASE AVERAGE
HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES, RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES,
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND A SURGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE HEADED THIS WAY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THUS A RETURN OF
PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BUILD TO
THE EAST, BECOMING SITUATED OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHIFT SHOULD HELP WINDS (CURRENTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE) RETURN FROM THE S-SW, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ONE MORE COOL PERIOD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY AS OPPOSED TO PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OF AROUND 80 DEGREES. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME S-SW AT 5-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A MILDER TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. SIMILAR WARMTH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF AMERICA FURTHER INLAND. THIS MOISTURE POOLING COULD
BRING LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST NEARS. WITH AN
ADDITION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH MORE PREDOMINATE SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE STRONG 0-3KM HELICITY
INCREASING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
(150 TO OVER 400 M/S) IN THIS TIMEFRAME COULD RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AS WE GO INTO THE WORKWEEK. IT WILL JOIN WITH AN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGHING FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
TROUGH, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, AND BRING
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN THIS TIME ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, IN AN ALREADY MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION. THE TIMING OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE CONVECTION BECOMING SEVERE, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRONGEST STORMS AND HIGHER
TORNADO CHANCES APPEARS WILL BE MORE TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
INVOLVED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW
TO SE MANNER. A LATER IN THE DAY TO EVENING PASSAGE WOULD BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 70S.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION, AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
RISE TO AND ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE 1.5 INCH PW IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH 2 INCHES NEAR THE
TOP. THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN PRODUCING
RUNOFF, AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND/OR FLOODING. DESPITE
RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES COULD
CHANGE THAT PICTURE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CLOUDS AND RAIN LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SE EARLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE
QUICK BOUT OF HIGH PRESSURE PAIRED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO MOMENTARILY DISPLACE GULF MOISTURE
KEEPING TEMPS MILD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BRIEF
BOUT OF DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN THE SW. THIS WILL INDUCE SW
FLOW LOCALLY SURGING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PAIRED WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
FEATURE PASSES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WILL BUILD TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT DAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING S-SW
ON MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO THE LATE NIGHT. HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SHOULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE FORMATION OF FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS, FROM LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB
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