758
FXUS64 KHUN 040615
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
115 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH GA WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE TODAY. GUSTS
OVER 20KT WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH MS INTO AL LATE TODAY, BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, A WARM AND DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A MILDER TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. SIMILAR WARMTH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF AMERICA FURTHER INLAND. THIS MOISTURE POOLING COULD
BRING LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST NEARS. WITH AN
ADDITION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH MORE PREDOMINATE SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE STRONG 0-3KM HELICITY
INCREASING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
(150 TO OVER 400 M/S) IN THIS TIMEFRAME COULD RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AS WE GO INTO THE WORKWEEK. IT WILL JOIN WITH AN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGHING FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
TROUGH, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, AND BRING
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN THIS TIME ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, IN AN ALREADY MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION. THE TIMING OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING COULD RESULT IN SOME
OF THE CONVECTION BECOMING SEVERE, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRONGEST STORMS AND HIGHER
TORNADO CHANCES APPEARS WILL BE MORE TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
INVOLVED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW
TO SE MANNER. A LATER IN THE DAY TO EVENING PASSAGE WOULD BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 70S.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION, AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
RISE TO AND ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE 1.5 INCH PW IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH 2 INCHES NEAR THE
TOP. THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN PRODUCING
RUNOFF, AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND/OR FLOODING. DESPITE
RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES COULD
CHANGE THAT PICTURE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CLOUDS AND RAIN LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SE EARLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE
QUICK BOUT OF HIGH PRESSURE PAIRED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO MOMENTARILY DISPLACE GULF MOISTURE
KEEPING TEMPS MILD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BRIEF
BOUT OF DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN THE SW. THIS WILL INDUCE SW
FLOW LOCALLY SURGING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PAIRED WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
FEATURE PASSES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL GUST AT 15-20KT AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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