124
FXUS64 KHUN 120314
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULD
BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY, MORE COOLER
AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL FILTER IN, THUS EXPECT CHILLY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE AROUND
50 WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE A COUPLE
INGREDIENTS THAT COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF FOG; HOWEVER THE
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH FOR HAMPER MOST FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
WITH PLENTY OF MAY SUN, CONDITIONS TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE FURTHER
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LIGHT WINDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 50S. REAL SPRING-LIKE WARMTH SHOULD BE REALIZED
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL HEAD ESE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY LATE THURSDAY, IT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN, KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
A BIT COOLER THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THE MORE CHILLY AIR WILL BE MORE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THESE PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS
TEMPS RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
WE END THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, ANOTHER TROUGH IN MANITOBA, AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN.
THIS WILL HELP BOOST OUR HIGHS TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT AND THE CANADIAN
ONE WILL RUN OVER THE RIDGE, FLATTENING IT. A FEW DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH WILL TRY TO BRING A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ON SATURDAY BUT THAT WON'T COOL US DOWN. BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE WAA FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, HIGHS WILL BE SET IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A NEW TROUGH SLIDING OUT FROM THE UPPER ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND THE EFFECT IT HAS
ON THE RIDGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, TEMPS WILL BRING
BACK A TASTE OF SUMMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND IN
THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS, BE SURE TO BRUSH UP ON YOUR HEAT
SAFETY AND ENSURE THAT NEXT WEEKEND YOU KNOW HOW TO STAY COOL AND
HYDRATED. DON'T FORGET: NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
FOR THE 00Z TAF, VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING, WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND AND RESULTANT
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
FORMING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE 5-10KT FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB
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