664
FXUS64 KHUN 121046
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
546 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
2 AM SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A CUT OFF LOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH WITH ITS
ASSOCIATES SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN AL/GA AND
INTO THE FL PENINSULA. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
CURRENTLY BLANKETS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE THIS, WEAK CAA
THROUGH THE DAY HAS ALLOWED FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S COME SUNRISE.
THROUGH THE DAY, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS BOTH THE CUT OFF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH SE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL
BUILD, INDUCING SE SURFACE FLOW. AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, SUBTLE WAA FROM THE GULF STREAM WILL
SLIGHTLY RAISE BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH DEW
POINTS RETURNING TO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 50S. REAL SPRING-LIKE WARMTH SHOULD BE REALIZED
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL HEAD ESE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY LATE THURSDAY, IT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN, KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
A BIT COOLER THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THE MORE CHILLY AIR WILL BE MORE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THESE PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS
TEMPS RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
WE END THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, ANOTHER TROUGH IN MANITOBA, AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN.
THIS WILL HELP BOOST OUR HIGHS TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT AND THE CANADIAN
ONE WILL RUN OVER THE RIDGE, FLATTENING IT. A FEW DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH WILL TRY TO BRING A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ON SATURDAY BUT THAT WON'T COOL US DOWN. BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE WAA FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, HIGHS WILL BE SET IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A NEW TROUGH SLIDING OUT FROM THE UPPER ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND THE EFFECT IT HAS
ON THE RIDGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, TEMPS WILL BRING
BACK A TASTE OF SUMMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND IN
THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS, BE SURE TO BRUSH UP ON YOUR HEAT
SAFETY AND ENSURE THAT NEXT WEEKEND YOU KNOW HOW TO STAY COOL AND
HYDRATED. DON'T FORGET: NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RAD
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