204
FXUS64 KHUN 130437
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFF OF THE EAST COAST WAS THE
MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER.
WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING AND AN INVERSION ALOFT (AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE IT), AREAL TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
60S. A FEW CLOUDS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXITING THE
NE GULF CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NE ALABAMA, OTHERWISE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THOSE
MORE FOG PRONE SPOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL INTO THE 50S (LOWER 50S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST).
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW, AS A LIGHT SE FLOW IN THE
MORNING BECOMES SOUTHERLY, THEN SW-W IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE AREA RISING
INTO THE LOWER 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE
HEADING ESE, BEING SITUATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND WEST OF IT'S SURFACE
REFLECTION (A BIT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW), WILL MOVE IN A NW-SE
MANNER ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SW-W WINDS IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE W-NW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. NEW BLEND OUTPUT THAT JUST CAME IN WAS
HOLDING ON TO LOWER END CONVECTION CHANCES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NE ALABAMA AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THIS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IF MOVES OVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK ON THURSDAY, AND INDUCE MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD OVER THIS AREA FROM THE
NW ON THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FELT
MORE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHWARD. BUT ENOUGH OF IT
FILTERING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 AREAWIDE. A
COOLER TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
70S, AND LOWS IN THE NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO AROUND 50
WEST.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD EAST OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH AS WE
GO INTO FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NOT AS CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S
WEST. ALL IN ALL, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND; ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 1.0-1.3 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING BUT DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCITE ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL A MORE PROMINENT
UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE MIDWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
SLIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE, WITH RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN AMPLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PWATS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES OR SO BY TUESDAY.
COMPARING THIS WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THESE VALUES ARE AT OR
JUST OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND LIFT, LEADING TO THE BETTER CHANCE AT ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD (ALBEIT STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT). ULTIMATELY, THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AND THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH THIS BEING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
WE'LL BE WATCHING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, SINCE SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGHS WILL REACH AT
LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST ACTUALLY CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK (IN THE LOWER 90S). EVEN SO, BOTH SETS OF VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 80S FOR BOTH
MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE FROM MAY 16TH THROUGH THE 20TH).
ADDITIONALLY, NWS HEATRISK INCREASES TO LEVEL 2 OF 5 (MODERATE) FOR
MANY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S (LEVEL 2 OF 5; MODERATE THREAT). THUS, IT'S IMPORTANT
TO REMEMBER AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY! THIS IS IMPERATIVE NOT ONLY FOR
THOSE THAT HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CHILDREN, BUT ALSO FOR
THOSE THAT WORK OUTSIDE SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION WORKERS. MAKE SURE TO
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE! DON'T
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RAD
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