293
FXUS64 KHUN 131038
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
FAIRLY TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ASIDE
FROM SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAYS WEATHER FOCAL POINT WILL BE A A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW,
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPS TO HEAT INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM AROUND 2 PM - 8
PM. THE PASSING FRONT WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS, YET THE COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
MODEST WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND 25% IN NE AL. THE MORE WIDESPREAD
EVIDENCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE VIA THE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THIS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IF MOVES OVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK ON THURSDAY, AND INDUCE MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD OVER THIS AREA FROM THE
NW ON THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FELT
MORE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHWARD. BUT ENOUGH OF IT
FILTERING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 AREAWIDE. A
COOLER TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
70S, AND LOWS IN THE NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO AROUND 50
WEST.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD EAST OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH AS WE
GO INTO FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NOT AS CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S
WEST. ALL IN ALL, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND; ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 1.0-1.3 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING BUT DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCITE ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL A MORE PROMINENT
UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE MIDWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
SLIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE, WITH RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN AMPLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PWATS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES OR SO BY TUESDAY.
COMPARING THIS WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THESE VALUES ARE AT OR
JUST OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND LIFT, LEADING TO THE BETTER CHANCE AT ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD (ALBEIT STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT). ULTIMATELY, THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AND THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH THIS BEING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
WE'LL BE WATCHING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, SINCE SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGHS WILL REACH AT
LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST ACTUALLY CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK (IN THE LOWER 90S). EVEN SO, BOTH SETS OF VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 80S FOR BOTH
MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE FROM MAY 16TH THROUGH THE 20TH).
ADDITIONALLY, NWS HEATRISK INCREASES TO LEVEL 2 OF 5 (MODERATE) FOR
MANY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S (LEVEL 2 OF 5; MODERATE THREAT). THUS, IT'S IMPORTANT
TO REMEMBER AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY! THIS IS IMPERATIVE NOT ONLY FOR
THOSE THAT HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CHILDREN, BUT ALSO FOR
THOSE THAT WORK OUTSIDE SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION WORKERS. MAKE SURE TO
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE! DON'T
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
FROM ABOUT 18Z-00Z A COLD FRONT WILL PASS AND PROMPT WINDS TO BACK
TO THE NW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RAD
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