065
FXUS64 KHUN 131706
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1206 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
IT'S A PLEASANT MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS IN
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARDS AND DEEPEN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 PM TO 8 PM.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE (10-25%) FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING TO THE
NORTHEAST IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT WHICH IS AROUND 6-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARDS
THURSDAY AMD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA SUPPORTING
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT OF THE WEDNESDAY'S
PASSING COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. LACK OF
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALLOW THE TN VALLEY TO EXPERIENCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING THURSDAY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
THE TN VALLEY TO BEGIN WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW OUR AREA TO EXPERIENCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND; ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 1.0-1.3 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING BUT DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCITE ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL A MORE PROMINENT
UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE MIDWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
SLIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE, WITH RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN AMPLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PWATS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES OR SO BY TUESDAY.
COMPARING THIS WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THESE VALUES ARE AT OR
JUST OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND LIFT, LEADING TO THE BETTER CHANCE AT ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD (ALBEIT STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT). ULTIMATELY, THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AND THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH THIS BEING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
WE'LL BE WATCHING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, SINCE SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGHS WILL REACH AT
LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST ACTUALLY CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK (IN THE LOWER 90S). EVEN SO, BOTH SETS OF VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 80S FOR BOTH
MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE FROM MAY 16TH THROUGH THE 20TH).
ADDITIONALLY, NWS HEATRISK INCREASES TO LEVEL 2 OF 5 (MODERATE) FOR
MANY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S (LEVEL 2 OF 5; MODERATE THREAT). THUS, IT'S IMPORTANT
TO REMEMBER AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY! THIS IS IMPERATIVE NOT ONLY FOR
THOSE THAT HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CHILDREN, BUT ALSO FOR
THOSE THAT WORK OUTSIDE SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION WORKERS. MAKE SURE TO
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE! DON'T
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NW. THE
WINDS WILL RECEDE LATER TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TG
SHORT TERM....TG
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...GH
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