212
FXUS64 KHUN 142337
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH ARE OCCURRING IN AREA OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NOT
SURE GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AND
CURRENT DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE VALLEY AREAS OF NE
ALABAMA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF I-65 AND MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. NOT EXPECTING FROST TO DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TRENDS WITH EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AS AN UPPER LOW WORKS ENE INTO THE WEEKEND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOW DISTURBANCES WELL NNW OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, THE
FORCING AND GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST OVER ARKANSAS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA.
WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MAINLY EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 18 TO 20 DEGREE CELSIUS IN MOST
GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST
HIGHS COULD REACH THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST GUIDANCE
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES). SOME DISTURBANCES DEVELOP A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, BUT STILL KEEP FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE OVER
ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTS THIS FAR SOUTH EXCEPT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. LUCKILY THIS WILL HELP TO TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON
SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AT THE TIME. HOWEVER, MOST
GUIDANCE POSITIONS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE I-65
CORRIDOR OR FURTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE STRONGEST FORCING
AND BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT OVER GEORGIA. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A NORTH/SOUTH AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 925 TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 22 AND 25
DEGREES BY MONDAY IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST
PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, AS STRENGTHENING
RIDGING SHOULD PUSH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA AGAIN. THE HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY TREND WARMER
WITH FUTURE GUIDANCE GIVEN FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED.
FOR NOW, KEPT WITH NBM ENSEMBLE VALUES (HIGHS ON SUNDAY 85 TO
91/HIGHS ON MONDAY 87 TO 93).
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN STRENGTH UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TRY TO PUSH EAST FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH LOWS INTO THE
60S AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO NEAR 70 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER RIDGING GETS
AND HOW FAR EAST THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF IT MOVES ON TUESDAY. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF
MORE CERTAIN RAIN INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY THEN. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE BEING STRONGER AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
BEING WEAKER. FOR NOW, KEPT VERY LOW QPF (LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES
MAINLY) FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR, BUT SHEAR IS VERY WEAK.
BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER
RIDGING WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS COULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST THROUGH
A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD
TO THE SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO TOMORROW, HELPING TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. THUS LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH AN
EXCEPTION OF PASSING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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