911
FXUS64 KHUN 150435
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AN UPPER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS DEEPENED INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS HAS INDUCED ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. THIS HOWEVER
APPEARS WILL BE THE LAST MAJOR TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES,
EXITING THE NEWFOUNDLAND COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THE
ABOVE OCCURS, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL HEAD TO THE ESE, AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH STRONG RIDGING FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
WILL HEAD EASTWARD. WITH THE ABOVE NOTED TROUGHING IN PLACE, ONE
MORE CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
(LOWER 40S EAST TO MID 40S WEST). GIVEN CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS,
AND GENERALLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN, WE COULD SEE LOWS NEAR 40 IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TOMORROW MORNING, LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH. THIS AND MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE NORMS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD, OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCING A WARMING
TREND. AS SUCH, NOT AS COOL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE THE
LOWER 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, AS WELL
AS BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN ON SATURDAY. EVEN SO, WARMER AIR AND HIGHER
HEIGHTS WILL HELP BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AND JUST ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE AROUND 83 DEGREES
FOR REFERENCE. EVEN MILDER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. AND WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO MID AND
UPPER 80S. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, AS WELL AS THE BLENDS ARE
KEEPING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA, SO AM MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL INCREASE/REINFORCE A VERY WARM, MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
SWINGS ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHARPER TROUGH
MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...HC
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