390
FXUS64 KHUN 160220
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE TENNESSEE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLIP
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A PRONOUNCED WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKS TO THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL KEEP ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY LATE WEEK. BY THIS TIME,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO BECOME
LARGELY ZONAL. IN ADDITION, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS
FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW SLATED
TO SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, LOOKS TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL THEREFORE CONSIST OF DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
ARE RIGHT AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) WHEN COMPARED WITH
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BMX. THEREFORE, SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS TREND WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOW DUE TO
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL ALSO BE MONITORED
IN CASE BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE, IN WHICH CASE THE POTENTIAL OF
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
LASTLY, A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90S ON TUESDAY DECREASING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY (DUE TO FROPA ON WEDNESDAY).
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN,
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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