533
FXUS64 KHUN 161715
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE TENNESSEE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE IN AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND FURTHER NW OF THE AREA OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT IT IS
VERY LIGHT. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ENE WITH TIME TODAY, KEEPING HEAVY/CONCENTRATED RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TOWARDS THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR JUST NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES INTO NE
MISSISSIPPI. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VIRGA OCCURRING OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT TIMES TODAY,.
HOWEVER, GIVEN WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND WEAKENING
LIFT EXPECTED, NO PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIT THICKER AND MORE PERSISTENT WEST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED, BUT SHOULD NOT BE VERY STRONG. HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP
OFF IN THE MID 80S WEST OF I-65. FURTHER EAST HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 80S.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS AND
CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY IN NW ALABAMA) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
WARMER OVERNIGHT, ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 21 AND 23 DEGREES IN MOST GUIDANCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING OVER MOST OF
GEORGIA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY (MOSTLY 20-30%
COVERAGE) WILL SEEP NEAR THE AL/GA LINE AND JUST WEST OF THERE.
NOT SEEING MUCH SHEAR IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT SBCAPE DOES INCREASE.
SO SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THIS FORCING DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STOUT OVER THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.SOME WEAK FORCING AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
AL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY LATE WEEK. BY THIS TIME,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO BECOME
LARGELY ZONAL. IN ADDITION, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS
FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW SLATED
TO SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, LOOKS TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL THEREFORE CONSIST OF DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
ARE RIGHT AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) WHEN COMPARED WITH
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BMX. THEREFORE, SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS TREND WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOW DUE TO
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL ALSO BE MONITORED
IN CASE BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE, IN WHICH CASE THE POTENTIAL OF
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
LASTLY, A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90S ON TUESDAY DECREASING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY (DUE TO FROPA ON WEDNESDAY).
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN,
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR NOW, LEFT
IT OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS. AFTER 17/15Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW
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