622
FXUS64 KHUN 162256
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE TENNESSEE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOME VIRGA IS STILL PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ARE AROUND 20
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS, THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL ALOFT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY END UP CAUSING
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 21 AND 23 DEGREES IN MOST GUIDANCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING OVER MOST OF
GEORGIA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY (MOSTLY 20-30%
COVERAGE) WILL SEEP NEAR THE AL/GA LINE AND JUST WEST OF THERE.
NOT SEEING MUCH SHEAR IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT SBCAPE DOES INCREASE.
SO SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THIS FORCING DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STOUT OVER THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.SOME WEAK FORCING AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
AL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY LATE WEEK. BY THIS TIME,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO BECOME
LARGELY ZONAL. IN ADDITION, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS
FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW SLATED
TO SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, LOOKS TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL THEREFORE CONSIST OF DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
ARE RIGHT AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) WHEN COMPARED WITH
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BMX. THEREFORE, SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS TREND WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOW DUE TO
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL ALSO BE MONITORED
IN CASE BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE, IN WHICH CASE THE POTENTIAL OF
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
LASTLY, A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90S ON TUESDAY DECREASING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY (DUE TO FROPA ON WEDNESDAY).
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN,
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, BUT INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO
FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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