209
FXUS64 KHUN 180812
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
ALABAMA MONDAY
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING LATE TUESDAY, THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-80%)
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 10%) THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LACK OF
SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL,
ONCE AGAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. BREEZY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FOR MONDAY, A PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER INTO AL,
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE PLUME AXIS DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL THERMO AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY
STRONG STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY AT OR
LESS THAN JUST 15 KTS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE BROAD UPR RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WITH DEEP SW-W FLOW
REMAINING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INITIALLY,
BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED AND DEAMPLIFY AS SHORT
WAVES ROUND ITS BASE AND MOVE NEWRD. ESSENTIALLY, THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, KEEPING THE TROUGH FROM
ADVANCING. HOWEVER, A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE INROADS TOWARDS
THE MID-SOUTH BY MID-WEEK, WHILE SWRLY FLOW ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ADDED
DYNAMIC FORCING BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO LOW/MEDIUM DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH BETTER CHANCES IN NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE BETTER FORCING. WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MODEST THERMO PROFILES, THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE AKIN TO GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED DEW
POINTS WILL CREATE WARMER FEELING CONDITIONS OVERALL, BUT
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE FOR LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE LARGELY UNABATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A BROAD SUMMER-LIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND DEEP SWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING BOUTS OF
INCREASED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. TIMING THIS IS DIFFICULT, AS THE
DISTINCT NATURE OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAYTIME WILL CERTAINLY ACT TO REGULATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES DURING THE THURS-FRIDAY PERIOD
DO NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH GENERALLY MOIST-
ADIABATIC TYPE PROFILES IN THE INCREASING DEEP/HUMID AIRMASS. PWS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES AND ONLY MODEST CAPES AND WEAK-MODEST
SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THE LARGEST THREAT MAY BE DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THAT COULD RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PROSPECT FOR
SLOW-MOVING TRAINING STORMS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT STILL WOULD CHARACTERIZE AS MODEST AT BEST. OVERALL,
THIS IS REMINISCENT OF A WARM, EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND WARM NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...HC
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