545
FXUS64 KHUN 181531
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- LOW CHANCES (10%-20%) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA
TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING LATE TUESDAY, THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%)
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. TEMPS ARE ALREADY PUSHING 80 DEGREES THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH. AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (SBCAPE ~1000 J/KG) WILL REMAIN
EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE PRIMARILY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS REMAINING
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE TO OUR EAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRANSITIONS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
SLOW AND BECOME NEAR STATIONARY OVER MS/AL/GA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT, CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRANSITION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE TN VALLEY AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING CAMS COMING IN ARE
BACKING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE INITIAL
PRECIP COMING IN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. ANY NOTABLE
PRECIP CHANCE REMAIN WEST OF I-65 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THAT STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH IF TRENDS CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BETWEEN
70%-90% BOTH DAYS. SHEAR PROFILES AREN'T IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
AND THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW BUT WILL FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND
LIFT IN PLACE TO FUEL THESE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY. WE ARE INCLUDED IN
A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY WPC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL AT THIS POINT AND
QPF TOTALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN ANY SORT OF IMPACTFUL
FLOODING OUTSIDE OF PONDING ON ROADWAYS WHERE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE SEEN.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING
MID- WEEK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WEAKENING RIDGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE LARGELY UNABATED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A BROAD SUMMER-LIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND DEEP SWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING BOUTS OF
INCREASED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. TIMING THIS IS DIFFICULT, AS THE
DISTINCT NATURE OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAYTIME WILL CERTAINLY ACT TO REGULATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE PERIOD. THERMO PROFILES DURING THE THURS-FRIDAY PERIOD
DO NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH GENERALLY MOIST-
ADIABATIC TYPE PROFILES IN THE INCREASING DEEP/HUMID AIRMASS. PWS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES AND ONLY MODEST CAPES AND WEAK-MODEST
SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THE LARGEST THREAT MAY BE DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THAT COULD RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PROSPECT
FOR SLOW-MOVING TRAINING STORMS. SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL WOULD CHARACTERIZE AS MODEST AT BEST.
OVERALL, THIS IS REMINISCENT OF A WARM, EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND WARM NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY,
BREEZY CONDITIONS UP TO 18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...HC
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