855
FXUS64 KHUN 190311
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN LATE TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEN PERSIST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
CURRENTLY WATCHING AS A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS, REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO OUR SOUTH, MOVE FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA UP INTO CULLMAN
COUNTY. THESE MAY EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO MORGAN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. OVERALL, NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING (NO SEVERE WEATHER). WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THESE ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL
RADAR SCANS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY
DECREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (COOLER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA). CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE
ANY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH, AN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PROGRESS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE VERY LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN
10%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STILL BE WELL
TO OUR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON, MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. THEREFORE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE YET AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES - HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES!
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO THEN MEANDER OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS (THROUGH LATE WEEK). THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP DAILY
CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TO PUT THE WET CONDITIONS INTO PERSPECTIVE, MODEL PWATS GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHEN
COMPARED WITH SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BIRMINGHAM, THESE VALUES
ARE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) FOR
MAY 20TH AND 21ST. THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL
AND IF IT'S REPETITIVE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LOCALIZED FLOOD
RISK. CURRENTLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF NORTH
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THIS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS, WHILE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE CONTINUING TREND OF LOW BULK SHEAR VALUES
BY GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY). THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPER
VALUES, RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S, DUE TO ELEVATED
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE, MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO THE GULF STATES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE 2.0+ INCH PWS WILL
RESIDE. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN
THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE OVER AL INTO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TN, WITH
HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH GA AND
THE CAROLINAS. MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY (DIURNALLY INFLATED DUE TO HEATING). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. AFTER 15Z TUESDAY,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ~10KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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