055
FXUS64 KHUN 190811
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
311 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEN PERSIST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM TUE MAY 19 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH ONLY SOME BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO INCH A COLD
FRONT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL HELP TO ADVECT AND MAINTAIN A
WARM, MOIST AIR MASS (AS EVIDENCED BY HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S).
WHILE SOME MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AT LEAST
A WEAK CAP. WITHOUT A LIFTING MECHANISM (AND SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE), THINK THE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY CONVECTION IS
EXTREMELY LOW AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 5-10%. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM/HUMID AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PROGGED HIGHS AND THE
DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO THEN MEANDER OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS (THROUGH LATE WEEK). THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP DAILY
CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TO PUT THE WET CONDITIONS INTO PERSPECTIVE, MODEL PWATS GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHEN
COMPARED WITH SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BIRMINGHAM, THESE VALUES
ARE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) FOR
MAY 20TH AND 21ST. THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL
AND IF IT'S REPETITIVE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LOCALIZED FLOOD
RISK. CURRENTLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF NORTH
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THIS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS, WHILE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE CONTINUING TREND OF LOW BULK SHEAR VALUES
BY GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY). THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL TEMPER
VALUES, RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S, DUE TO ELEVATED
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE, MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO THE GULF STATES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE 2.0+ INCH PWS WILL
RESIDE. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN
THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE OVER AL INTO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TN, WITH
HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH GA AND
THE CAROLINAS. MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY (DIURNALLY INFLATED DUE TO HEATING). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SSW BETWEEN
15-20 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP
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