365
FXUS64 KHUN 191514
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEN PERSIST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A HOT AND HUMID SUMMER LIKE DAY IS UNDERWAY AS TEMPERATURES AS OF
10AM ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA REMAINS ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT,
BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE, HOWEVER WITH NO LIFTING
MECHANISM IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, NO PRECIP IS
FORECAST TODAY. IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON MAKE
SURE TO HYDRATE AND PRACTICE GOOD HEAT SAFETY.
BY TONIGHT, THE MCS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED MO/AR/LA
WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO TN/MS. BY THE TIME IT REACHES NW AL A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS IT RUNS INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NW
AL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS IT STALLS JUST TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SHEAR,
THEREFORE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026AFTER SUNRISE, W
A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE, MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO THE GULF STATES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE 2.0+ INCH PWS WILL
RESIDE. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN
THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE OVER AL INTO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TN, WITH
HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH GA AND
THE CAROLINAS. MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY (DIURNALLY INFLATED DUE TO HEATING). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY LATE THIS MORNING WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SSW BETWEEN 10-20 KTS, BEFORE WEAKENING TO
UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A PROB30
TO HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE OF -TSRA AT KMSL AFTER 06Z EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page