758
FXUS64 KHUN 191944
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEN PERSIST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TULLAHOMA SOUTH TOWARDS GUNTERSVILLE.
THESE STORMS REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND STAY SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES NEAR THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST, THERE IS
BARELY A CU FIELD SUGGESTING SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
BY TONIGHT, THE MCS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED MO/AR/LA
WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO TN/MS. BY THE TIME IT REACHES NW AL A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS IT RUNS INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NW
AL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS IT STALLS JUST TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SHEAR,
THEREFORE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026AFTER SUNRISE, W
A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE, MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO THE GULF STATES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE 2.0+ INCH PWS WILL
RESIDE. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN
THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE OVER AL INTO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TN, WITH
HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH GA AND
THE CAROLINAS. MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY (DIURNALLY INFLATED DUE TO HEATING). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
MORNING, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR. ONE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING, HENCE LEFT IN A PROB 30 GROUP FOR NOW
AND WILL REFINE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
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