448
FXUS64 KHUN 192351
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEN PERSIST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TULLAHOMA SOUTH TOWARDS GUNTERSVILLE.
THESE STORMS REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND STAY SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES NEAR THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST, THERE IS
BARELY A CU FIELD SUGGESTING SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
BY TONIGHT, THE MCS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED MO/AR/LA
WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO TN/MS. BY THE TIME IT REACHES NW AL A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS IT RUNS INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NW
AL. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS IT STALLS JUST TO OUR
WEST, SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SHEAR,
THEREFORE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026AFTER SUNRISE, W
A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE, MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO THE GULF STATES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE 2.0+ INCH PWS WILL
RESIDE. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN
THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE OVER AL INTO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TN, WITH
HIGHER VALUES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH GA AND
THE CAROLINAS. MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY (DIURNALLY INFLATED DUE TO HEATING). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS (MAINLY
SCATTERED AND HIGH CLOUDS) THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 4000
FEET TO 5000 FEET TO DEVELOP AROUND 6Z AT KMSL AND CLOSER TO 7Z OR
8Z AT KHSV. -SHRA WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL AROUND
OR JUST AFTER 11Z AND CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z AT KHSV. INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND CHANGED TO A TEMPO OR
PREDOMINANT GROUP DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT. DURING THIS
PERIOD, MVFR TO IFR CIGS OR VSBYS COULD OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KTW
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