180
FXUS64 KHUN 200327
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1027 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TONIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THEN PERSIST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A TROUGH
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS. FAIRLY STRONG FORCING ALOFT AT 500 MB IS SEEN ALONG THIS
TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER EAST IN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS, THE STRONGEST FORCING IS CONCENTRATED AROUND 700 MB WITH
500 TO 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE SHOWN IN SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DEEP THE STRONGER FORCING WILL BE AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL HAVE TOWARDS 1 AM INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY THIS FAR EAST. MOST GUIDANCE WEAKENS
FORCING AROUND 700 MB SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT PERIOD, BUT STRONG
VORTICITY DEVELOPS IN SEVERAL MODELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
THAT PIVOTS FROM NE MISSISSIPPI INTO NW ALABAMA. MODELS HOLD ONTO
BETWEEN 300 AND 800 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN NW ALABAMA. SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK, BUT DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPECT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NW MISSISSIPPI TO PUSH MORE TO
THE NNE OVERALL. THOUGH, MODELS DO SHOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
MOVING INTO NW ALABAMA MAYBE AS EARLY 4 AM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE FORECAST, BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AROUND 500 MB
BY MODELS MOVING INTO NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM, THINKING
THAT COVERAGE IN NW ALABAMA AT LEAST WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THOUGH AT THIS TIME, THINK THIS WILL BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT
MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONT
IS SLOW TO MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WITH WEAK SHEAR REMAINING OVER THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, COVERAGE SHOULD
DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO LOW TO MEDIUM COVERAGE (20-50%).
HOWEVER, WE WILL REMAIN IN A HUMID AIRMASS, AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTH AGAIN INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG IT. COMBINED WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON). SHEAR REMAINS WEAK IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT (LESS THAN 25
KNOTS). THAT IS A GOOD THING GIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWN BY GUIDANCE
(1500-3000 J/KG). PWATS INCREASE AGAIN THOUGH, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR MINOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THINGS DON'T CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE FRONT DOESN'T MOVE
MUCH AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THERE MIGHT BE A BIT STRONGER SHEAR (0-3 KM ~ 30 KNOTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 J/KG, JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH HIGHER
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LARGELY PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO RIPPLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT STALL OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS WELL THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. THEREFORE, THE
RAINY AND SUMMERTIME-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERATED A BIT BY THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY; BUT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
MODEL PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WHICH ARE OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARED WITH
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BIRMINGHAM (~1.6 INCHES) FOR MAY 23RD
THROUGH 26TH. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEREFORE BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS, SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE INCREASED RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL REPEATEDLY. AS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK
SHEAR VALUES MAY REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS PERIODICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
REGARDLESS, IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE, AS LIGHTNING IS DANGEROUS WHETHER OR NOT A STORM IS SEVERE! IN
ADDITION, IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY FLOODED ROADS, REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. NOT TOO MANY CLOUDS (MAINLY
SCATTERED AND HIGH CLOUDS) THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 4000
FEET TO 5000 FEET TO DEVELOP AROUND 6Z AT KMSL AND CLOSER TO 7Z OR
8Z AT KHSV. -SHRA WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL AROUND
OR JUST AFTER 11Z AND CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z AT KHSV. INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND CHANGED TO A TEMPO OR
PREDOMINANT GROUP DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT. DURING THIS
PERIOD, MVFR TO IFR CIGS OR VSBYS COULD OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW
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