440
FXUS64 KHUN 200824
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DRIFTED
LARGELY NNE INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF
THE REGION. OVERALL, THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (AND
MAYBE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM) CLIP PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST
ALABAMA NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER BETWEEN 09-12Z. THE LATEST TREND IN
GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, WOULD EXPECT SOME REGENERATION LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, SOME PARTIAL HEATING IN
THE MORNING HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON -- WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
(60-90%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST DURING THIS
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. PWATS IN THE 85-90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DAY
WILL HELP MAKE ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DENSE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER, WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WITH WEAK SHEAR REMAINING OVER THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, COVERAGE SHOULD
DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO LOW TO MEDIUM COVERAGE (20-50%).
HOWEVER, WE WILL REMAIN IN A HUMID AIRMASS, AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTH AGAIN INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG IT. COMBINED WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON). SHEAR REMAINS WEAK IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT (LESS THAN 25
KNOTS). THAT IS A GOOD THING GIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWN BY GUIDANCE
(1500-3000 J/KG). PWATS INCREASE AGAIN THOUGH, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR MINOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THINGS DON'T CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE FRONT DOESN'T MOVE
MUCH AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THERE MIGHT BE A BIT STRONGER SHEAR (0-3 KM ~ 30 KNOTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 J/KG, JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH HIGHER
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LARGELY PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO RIPPLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT STALL OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS WELL THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. THEREFORE, THE
RAINY AND SUMMERTIME-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERATED A BIT BY THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY; BUT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
MODEL PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WHICH ARE OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARED WITH
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM BIRMINGHAM (~1.6 INCHES) FOR MAY 23RD
THROUGH 26TH. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEREFORE BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS, SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE INCREASED RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL REPEATEDLY. AS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK
SHEAR VALUES MAY REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS PERIODICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
REGARDLESS, IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE, AS LIGHTNING IS DANGEROUS WHETHER OR NOT A STORM IS SEVERE! IN
ADDITION, IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY FLOODED ROADS, REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY/MID MORNING
HOURS, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 4 KFT BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS STILL VERY LOW SO HAVE HANDLED WITH A 20-02Z TIMEFRAME
FOR NOW. THEREAFTER, LOWER CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN AND SOME LIGHT FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE EVENING DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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