171
FXUS64 KHUN 210054
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH WEAK ROTATION HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN TN
AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AL THIS MORNING. A COUPLE HAVE
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A MESOSCALE VORTICITY
CENTER HAS MOVED INTO A LOW LEVEL CAPE RICH ENVIRONMENT WHICH MAY
HAVE AIDED IN THE ROTATION TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO THRIVE UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING STARTS TO DEPLETE THEIR UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS CLUSTERS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AL LIFT NORTHWARD PRODUCING OUTFLOW INTO UNTAPPED UNSTABLE
AIR. PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ENVIRONMENT JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER
NOW ALONG THE LA GULF COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THESE WAVES MAY HAVE
STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT AT TIMES, WHICH MAY
AMPLIFY THE RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOWER
PWS AND DRIER AIR MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THE WAVE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
THE BLEND OF MODELS STILL INCLUDES MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS IS SOMETHING WE MAY NEED TO MODIFY IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A 5H RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO GA AND FL NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A
SIMILAR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE POSITION, THE
ECMWF IS FAVORED HERE DUE TO ITS PERSISTENCE THIS WEEK. IN EITHER
CASE, THE PATTERN WILL KEEP PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLAY FOR THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOWERING TO LOW TO MEDIUM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH GREATEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL FOR
NOW, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 010AGL
(IFR) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 08Z, AND RISE INTO THE 010-025AGL
RANGE (MVFR) BY 15Z, THEN REACH ABOVE 030AGL (VFR) BY NLT 20Z.
PREVAILING WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY AT 6KT OR LESS AFTER 15Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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