531
FXUS64 KHUN 210657
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
157 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A FEW CLUSTERS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY -- WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO AT TIMES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEMPORARILY WANE AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST TODAY AND WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THAT CAN
DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL THINK THAT SOME
PARTIAL HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE, LEADING TO HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, COUPLED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE 15-18Z, WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS AROUND
1.6"-1.7" (90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX SOUNDING CLIMO) WILL MAKE THIS
ACTIVITY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THUS, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION WILL
REGENERATE/CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THESE WAVES MAY HAVE
STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT AT TIMES, WHICH MAY
AMPLIFY THE RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOWER
PWS AND DRIER AIR MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THE WAVE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
THE BLEND OF MODELS STILL INCLUDES MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS IS SOMETHING WE MAY NEED TO MODIFY IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A 5H RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO GA AND FL NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A
SIMILAR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE POSITION, THE
ECMWF IS FAVORED HERE DUE TO ITS PERSISTENCE THIS WEEK. IN EITHER
CASE, THE PATTERN WILL KEEP PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLAY FOR THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOWERING TO LOW TO MEDIUM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH GREATEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF -RA
ACTIVITY, WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-00Z TO HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER SUNSET, MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP
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