467
FXUS64 KHUN 211456
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH 2-4
INCHES OVER THIS PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF BRIEF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
STRETCH.
- BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS AND JUST
ABOVE FOR LOWS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
DEEP LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST AL WHICH SEEMS TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE IN THE FLOW. AS THIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST, THERE MAY BE A
TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH, WITH THIS OCCURRING
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH CHANGE.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY AND BEGIN
LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT AS A STRONGER IMPULSE ENTERS THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS. WE MAY SEE A DECLINE IN PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING, BUT THEN A NEW BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP IN MS LATER TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40KT, THERE WILL BE A GREATER RISK OF
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY, THE AFTERNOON
MAY SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIMILAR WAVE THAT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH SIMILAR TRAITS. THUS, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, SUBSIDENCE MAY QUELL ACTIVITY A
BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A 5H RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO GA AND FL NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A
SIMILAR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE POSITION, THE
ECMWF IS FAVORED HERE DUE TO ITS PERSISTENCE THIS WEEK. IN EITHER
CASE, THE PATTERN WILL KEEP PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLAY FOR THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOWERING TO LOW TO MEDIUM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH GREATEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, PROMOTING LOW-END VFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW STRATUS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO IN THE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-00Z TO HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. AFTER SUNSET, MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP
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