425
FXUS64 KHUN 220251
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
951 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS
GUSTY WINDS AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OVER THIS PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
DURING THIS STRETCH.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
TODAY'S RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS VARIED, BUT
RANGE FROM 1-4" WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS SEEN EAST OF I-65. WITH
RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS FROM ALL THE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY
WITH MORE RAINFALL ON THE WAY OVERNIGHT, IF YOU COME ACROSS WATER
ON A ROADWAY OR WALKWAY, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. FLOOD WATERS
ARE HARD TO SEE AT NIGHT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT UP THROUGH MS AND AL AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS CAN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THE 9AM TO 4PM TIMEFRAME. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO.
PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH, JUST BELOW 2", BUT WHAT WE WILL HAVE
TOMORROW THAT WE DIDN'T HAVE TODAY IS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR.
WITH THIS, SPC HAS US IN A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR TOMORROW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY REACHING OVER
1,000 J/KG. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH MAINLY THE UPPER 70S TO 80
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AS WE
REMAIN STUCK IN A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS, AND WE ARE NOT IN A CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK BY SPC FOR SATURDAY. LIGHTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING (20-40%) BUT THE ROLLER COASTER WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHER POP CHANCES (50-80%) RETURNING ON SUNDAY. WITH
THE PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WPC HAS AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S WITH STICKY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE RELIEF FROM THE ROLLER COASTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YOU ARE LOOKING FOR WON'T BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM. WE WILL BE IN
A STAGNATE PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WPC HAS AT
LEAST SOME PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE, WE REALLY NEEDED THE RAIN,
BUT I THINK WE ARE ALL READY FOR THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WON'T FLUCTUATE MUCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EACH ROUND WILL PROVIDE HEAVY RAINFALL,
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. CIGS AND VIS REDUCTIONS WILL
CREATE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS MORE SO AFTER
SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
GUST 15-20KTS AND WILL PERSIST TIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...JMS
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