905
FXUS64 KHUN 221058
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CURRENTLY, LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER
MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WHILE THERE
HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING IN THE STORMS TO OUR EAST OVER THE PAST
HOUR, NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR LOCAL AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COINCIDE WITH
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER, BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED (AND SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE) TO RESURGE.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST AND
OUR THINKING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST UP FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION
TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO PRESENT TO OUR NORTH, GENERALLY
OVER TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS USHERED IN PLENTY
OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. IN FACT, MODEL PWAT VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 1.7-2.0 INCHES TODAY, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.6
INCHES) WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN YET
AGAIN TODAY.
IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH INSTABILITY VALUES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BECOME SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, THERE REMAINS A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 9AM-4PM
TODAY. WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OVER 150 M2/S2 AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS,
THE LOW RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. THEREFORE, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS WELL AS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION! ALSO, IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! LASTLY, WITH
THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERELY
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AS WE
REMAIN STUCK IN A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS, AND WE ARE NOT IN A CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK BY SPC FOR SATURDAY. LIGHTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING (20-40%) BUT THE ROLLER COASTER WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHER POP CHANCES (50-80%) RETURNING ON SUNDAY. WITH
THE PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WPC HAS AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S WITH STICKY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE RELIEF FROM THE ROLLER COASTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YOU ARE LOOKING FOR WON'T BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM. WE WILL BE IN
A STAGNATE PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WPC HAS AT
LEAST SOME PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE, WE REALLY NEEDED THE RAIN,
BUT I THINK WE ARE ALL READY FOR THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WON'T FLUCTUATE MUCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION, CIGS AT SOME
SITES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR OR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING - THESE
PLACES WERE LARGELY THE ONES WHO RECEIVED RAINFALL LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT LULL IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING, CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN COME
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A RAINY AND STORMY DAY WILL THEN
ENSUE. EXPECT LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STRONGER STORMS (ALONG WITH LOWER VIS).
FURTHERMORE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO BE ROUGHLY 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THEN DECREASES THIS
EVENING, ALONG WITH WINDS. ALTHOUGH, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...26
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