470
FXUS64 KHUN 222344
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH, AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT; THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2.5-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THUS, A RISK
FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
OVERALL, THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN NEAR TERM
FORECAST REASONING THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT TIME, THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD AXIS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
(WHICH HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS AL OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY) EXTENDS FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY, TN SOUTHWARD INTO MARSHALL
COUNTY, AL. THE GREATEST NEAR TERM RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND WILL BE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY SEVERE-
WARNED CELL IN JACKSON COUNTY, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN FROM CULLMAN COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST AL. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF
MORE WIDELY-DISPERSED CONVECTIVE CELLS FROM NORTHERN MS INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AL, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
MESOCYCLONE AND BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY MAY ONLY IMPACT A SMALL PART OF
NORTHWEST AL, AS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER 0Z, BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
EMBEDDED WITHIN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN SK/MB), A WEAK BUT NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AN INCREASINGLY COMPACT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO
WESTERN TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL IN
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN SSE FLOW ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CYCLONE'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS THE SSW LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO 30-40 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT BOTH 0-3KM AND
0-1KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MESOCYCLONES AND BRIEF
TORNADOES WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS, THE STRONGEST CELLS APPEAR AS IF
THEY WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE (WHERE SBCAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2500-3000 J/KG). LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, A SEPARATE AXIS OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PRIMARY
LOW INTO CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST AL AFTER 21Z, AND MAY ALSO FEATURE A SIMILAR RISK FOR
MESOCYCLONES AND BRIEF TORNADOES (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS PARTIALLY
SCATTER IN THIS REGION, ENABLING CAPE TO REACH 1000-1250 J/KG).
OTHERWISE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT, GIVEN PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1.6-1.8" RANGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
PORTION OF THE CWFA THAT HAS EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
RECENTLY, AND THUS HAS THE LOWEST 1-HOUR FFG VALUES.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEYOND SUNSET THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS MAY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION AND INITIATE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
10-12Z TIMEFRAME. AS OVERCAST LOW STRATUS CLOUDS RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD AND IN THE L-M
60S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH MAY DEVELOP ALONG A
PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE) WILL TEND TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME AND SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AND, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND BROAD SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS,
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE U70S-L80S AND THESE WOULD BE
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER CAPE (1500-2000 J/KG) BUT MUCH
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS, IN SPITE OF LOWER
STORM COVERAGE, CONDITIONS APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
TODAY, DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DRY BUT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET (ACROSS EASTERN TX).
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH.
THUS, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE U70S-L80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING
IN THE L-M 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE RELIEF FROM THE ROLLER COASTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YOU ARE LOOKING FOR WON'T BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM. WE WILL BE IN
A STAGNATE PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WPC HAS AT
LEAST SOME PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO THROUGH
TUESDAY. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE, WE REALLY NEEDED THE RAIN,
BUT I THINK WE ARE ALL READY FOR THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WON'T FLUCTUATE MUCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS AS OF
TAF ISSUANCE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NEARING
FROM THE WEST COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIG/VSBY IN THE EARLY
EVENING AT KMSL; NOT SO CONFIDENT WITH THE SHOWERS IMPACTING KHSV
IN THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE MORE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE LATE NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY. DO HAVE VSBY/CIG
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE PER A RISK FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SAT MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALZ008>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB
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