048
FXUS64 KHUN 230332
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2.5-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THUS THERE IS
A RISK OF FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WEAK CONVECTION WAS APPROACHING NW ALABAMA FROM NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS.
GIVEN MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS OVER THE AR/MS/LA
BORDER AREA, AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDING TO NW ALABAMA,
A FORECAST WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MORE TO THE WEST APPEARS WILL
OCCUR IN THE LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EARLIER TODAY, RAIN
TOTALS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY RANGED FROM LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN
INCH, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING 1-2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN A
STRIP FROM CULLMAN, TO MORGAN/MARSHALL, MADISON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. THE HIGHER END OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON PRODUCED SOME FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA, AS WELL AS RISES IN SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN THE
OVERNIGHT, WE HAVE ENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NE
ALABAMA.
WITH SHORTER NIGHTS AS WE GO INTO LATE MAY AND CONTINUED MOSTLY
MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA, FOG FORMATION
SHOULD IT OCCUR SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COOL
INTO THE MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE; PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 1.5" ON
SATURDAY, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
CHANCES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
DEEPER MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS WILL RISE INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.8", OR HIGHER
THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HEATING
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL PRODUCE HIGHER
INSTABILITY, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME PRODUCED INSTABILITY. AN ALMOST REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS
FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL STORM INTENSITY
SHOULD BE "GENERAL" ON SUNDAY, WITH RATHER HIGH INSTABILITY DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BUT WEAK SHEAR. MONDAY ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS HIGHER SHEAR VALUES; THUS WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. A DEEP SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST. THIS FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FURTHER INLAND
WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON A DIURNAL TREND - MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AS SUCH, DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
SOME RISKS FOR FLOODING AND AT TIMES ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN
AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS AS OF
TAF ISSUANCE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NEARING
FROM THE WEST COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIG/VSBY IN THE EARLY
EVENING AT KMSL; NOT SO CONFIDENT WITH THE SHOWERS IMPACTING KHSV
IN THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE MORE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE LATE NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY. DO HAVE VSBY/CIG
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE PER A RISK FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SAT MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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