511
FXUS64 KHUN 230838
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2.5-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THUS, THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON
MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE
SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS
WELL. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT, HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. MODEL PWATS ARE ALSO
SLIGHTLY LOWER, RANGING BETWEEN 1.4-1.7 INCHES (~1.6 INCHES IS THE
90TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY).
THEREFORE, MAINLY MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY EITHER,
DUE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOWN BY GUIDANCE ONLY REACHING BETWEEN
20-25 KNOTS EVEN WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (1500-2300 J/KG).
EVEN SO, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, SINCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTS WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. WHEN THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS! SEE A FLASH, DASH INSIDE! LASTLY, HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
CHANCES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
DEEPER MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS WILL RISE INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.8", OR HIGHER
THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HEATING
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL PRODUCE HIGHER
INSTABILITY, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME PRODUCED INSTABILITY. AN ALMOST REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS
FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL STORM INTENSITY
SHOULD BE "GENERAL" ON SUNDAY, WITH RATHER HIGH INSTABILITY DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BUT WEAK SHEAR. MONDAY ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS HIGHER SHEAR VALUES; THUS WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. A DEEP SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST. THIS FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FURTHER INLAND
WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON A DIURNAL TREND - MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AS SUCH, DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
SOME RISKS FOR FLOODING AND AT TIMES ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN
AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WERE ONGOING
OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AT ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION, A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA, WITH MSL AT
MVFR AND HSV AT VFR. HOWEVER, ANTICIPATING CIGS TO LOWER TO AT
LEAST MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF IFR AS
WELL. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE WILL PERIODICALLY BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A REPRIEVE IN RAIN
CHANCES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS THEN COMES
SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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