060
FXUS64 KHUN 231802
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
102 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2.5-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THUS, THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A DECAYING SURFACE LOW
(RELATED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH) WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OH TODAY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO NORTHERN MS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR INITIATION OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE REDUCED REGION-WIDE (AND PERHAPS
LIMITED TO JUST NORTHWEST AL) BY BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYING PROFILES ALOFT.
HOWEVER, THE LOCAL STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGHER VALUES OF BOTH MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/KG) AND DCAPE (600-800
J/KG) THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS, PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF
GREATER INSOLATION (AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE U70S-L80S) AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS. THUS, THE RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS (UP TO 50-60 MPH) WILL EXIST WITH
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REGIME
(HIGHLIGHTED BY 20-30 KNOT SW FLOW ALOFT).
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS SEVERAL CAMS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT A LARGE MCS (CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS LA)
MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO OUR CWFA BETWEEN 0-6Z. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
CONCURRENT WITH THE ONSET OF THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE, BUT MAY
STILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN APPEAR LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BECOME
REESTABLISHED, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE L60S IN
NORTHEAST AL TO THE M-U 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM VORT
MAX (PREDICTED TO CROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TODAY) WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS EASTERN TX THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A BROAD REGION OF SLOWLY
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX/NORTHEAST MEXICO, WITH AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT SPREADING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION BACKS TO SSW, RICH/TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION, WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 1.7-1.9"
RANGE TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH WEAKER AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGIME WILL REDUCE CAPE, DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT BEHIND BY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (DRIVEN LARGELY
BE DEEP-LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION) WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT
SOME POINT MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WIDESPREAD FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM
S-TO-N EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE 850-MB LEVEL MAY EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS
FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WEAK
INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE
RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE (AND EXTENDED PERIOD) OF MODERATE-LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE U70S-L80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. A DEEP SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST. THIS FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FURTHER INLAND
WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON A DIURNAL TREND - MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AS SUCH, DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT IN THE 1.6 TO
1.8 INCH RANGE WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
SOME RISKS FOR FLOODING AND AT TIMES ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN
AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS (FEATURING SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN THE 2.5-4 KFT
LAYER) ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS MAY DEVELOP (PARTICULARLY INVOF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS FAR NW
AL), COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BTWN
22-2Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN AHEAD OF AN MCS (CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY) THAT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CWFA. REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY, THE MCS (OR
ITS REMNANTS) WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN/LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT, AND A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED
BTWN 4-8Z TO REPRESENT OUR BEST ESTIMATE REGARDING TIMING.
LOW/MVFR STRATUS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF NOCTURNAL
PRECIPITATION, AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH LGT/VRBL FLOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD
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