999
FXUS64 KHUN 240359
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2.5-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THUS, THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A GENERALLY SW-NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER THE SE CONUS,
IN PART BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC BASIN. FURTHER TO THE NORTH, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WAS MOVING ESE FROM THE NW GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A BASIC
TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST SETUP GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEDGE FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO ACROSS
NE GEORGIA, THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP PUSH THE
ABOVE NOTED FRONT TO THE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THOSE SHOWERS BROUGHT ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD WIND DOWN AS WE GO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAD SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK, MAINLY
IN AND NEAR THOSE MORE FOG PRONE SPOTS. LOWS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE
SHOULD COOL INTO LOW/MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE "DRY" SPELL WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
ON THE WHAT TIME AND WHERE CONVECTION EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
FORM IS LOW. MOST OF THE MODELS TRENDS HAVE SHOWN IT FIRST OVER
NW ALABAMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREAS
AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE
"GENERAL" IN INTENSITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE BUILDING HIGH AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NOW AROUND 1.5"
TO 1.6" WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.8" TO NEARLY 2" FOR A GOOD PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE
NEW WEEK.
OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD FADE IN THE EVENING BUT WILL NOT
QUITE ALL GO AWAY. NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WHAT MAY
OCCUR IS WELL BEYOND WHAT CAN BE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 60S. MEMORIAL DAY WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM. A LONGER
DURATION OF SHOWERS AND HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.8" TO 1.9"
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THUS THERE WILL BE AN
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES IN AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS. WITH MORE MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S. ANOTHER WET DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
FOR THE START OF A SHORTER WORK WEEK. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S. HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR MORE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS A SIMILAR
LOCATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CIRCULATION
ROUNDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGION WELL INLAND. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE DIURNAL TREND AS WE
GO INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTH. DEPENDING UPON FAR SOUTH IT MOVES, RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
MAY INDEED BECOME LOWER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
INCLEMENT FLYING CONDITIONS PROBABLE ACROSS THE AREA, AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
WERE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA, GENERALLY MOVING NORTHWARD 10-15
KTS. THE CONVECTION APPEARS MORE PROBABLE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE THE
MAIN EFFECT FROM THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MORE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND SUN
AFTERNOON, BEGINNING OVER NW AL IN THE LATE MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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