241
FXUS64 KHUN 250008
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65 IN NORTHEAST AL.
- LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AN MCV HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER CONVERGENCE ZONE/HEAVY RAIN BAND HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST INTO TN, BUT THE NEXT BATCH TIED TO THE MCV CIRCULATION
WAS ENTERING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, INCLUDING CULLMAN COUNTY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. A FFA WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN NORTHEAST AL THROUGH 23Z. WE EXPECT THIS
BAND TO EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST WHERE
SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND SBCAPE INTO THE 1200-1700 J/KG RANGE. LOSS OF HEATING MAY
DEPLETE THESE STORMS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS SEEN IN RECENT HRRR RUNS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BETWEEN A WEAK 5H LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND A BERMUDA HIGH. THE WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TO 20-25KT IN THE 8-5H LAYER WITH GENERAL CONFLUENT FLOW
PERSISTING IN A HIGH PW/THETA-E AIRMASS. THUS, A CONTINUED RISK
OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CIRCULATION
ROUNDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGION WELL INLAND. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE DIURNAL TREND AS WE
GO INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTH. DEPENDING UPON FAR SOUTH IT MOVES, RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
MAY INDEED BECOME LOWER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE REFORMS A THIN LINE OF RA THAT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. CLEARING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MANY AREAS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA BY 5Z OR 6Z.
WITH DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS ALREADY VERY LOW AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
VERY SATURATED FROM ALL THE RAINFALL TODAY, THIS LOOKS VERY
POSSIBLE (MAYBE AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM). FOR NOW, WE HAVE
NOT BEEN THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER, LOWER MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WERE INCLUDED AFTER 9Z WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS. THESE VSBYS AND CIGS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWER AND BEGIN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (CLOSER TO THE 5Z
TO 7Z TIMEFRAME FOR MVFR VSBY DROPS - AND MAYBE TO BETWEEN 1/4SM
AND 3/4SM FOR VSBYS BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z) BY THE NEXT ISSUANCE. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page