613
FXUS64 KHUN 250542
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT ON MONDAY.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TOMORROW
THROUGH 10 PM CDT ON TUESDAY EVENING FOR CULLMAN, MORGAN,
MADISON, JACKSON, MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES.
- A EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS THAT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL LAUDERDALE
COUNTY (AL) NE INTO THE THE GREEN HILL AREA (TN) AN HOUR AGO HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, A THIN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST IN TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.
FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY, MANY AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS PRODUCED SOME
FLASH FLOODING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY AND
ISOLATED RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA.
FLOODING RECEDED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
GROUND IS VERY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL APART
IN NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SEVERAL AREAS HAVE ALREADY HAD CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING APPRECIABLE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FILLING BACK IN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY 0 DEGREES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 3 OR 4 AM, BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN OR FORM WITH
DENSER FOG DEVELOPMENT. WELL BEFORE THEN, WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH THIN CLOUD COVER,
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TOWARDS BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VERY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HANG THE SURFACE FRONT UP JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE WEST OF THIS SURFACE
FRONT ALOFT. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING), THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD, PULLING THE FRONT INTO
KENTUCKY.
THIS PULLS FAIRLY STRONG FORCING BOTH AT 500 MB AND 850 MB ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 10 AM. WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
STILL IN PLACE (PWATS REMAINING BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES),
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE ON TAP TOMORROW. GIVEN THE SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS AND STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 500 MB AND 700 MB,
A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THAT STARTS AT 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING
FOR COUNTIES THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
(CULLMAN, MORGAN, MARSHALL, MADISON, JACKSON, DEKALB). THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN.
THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FORMS SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS FORCING OVER
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR WILL BE NEAR/EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WEST OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY SEE LESS RAINFALL OVERALL. FOR NOW, CONTINUING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE SAME COUNTIES MENTIONED EARLIER.
THIS SHOULD LINE UP CLOSELY TO LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. LUCKILY, NOT SEEING
MUCH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED (A FEW HUNDRED TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG PRIMARILY). CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. MOST GUIDANCE DISSIPATES
ANY CONVECTION AND REALLY DROPS OFF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AFTER 10
PM ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BESIDES FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, RIVER FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR AREA BASINS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN, CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT LOOKS LIKE ON WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA IN GA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER FORCING EAST
OF THE AREA AND PUT NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INTO A REGIME OF SUBSIDENCE AND GIVE US A BREAK FROM
RAINFALL ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND A BIT HIGHER ON
WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN MANY AREAS,
DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LOW SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. RATHER SHARP, SMALLER SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING
WAS ALSO IN PLACE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. BUT MORE UPPER LOWS OVER SE CANADA WAS PRODUCING TROUGHING
ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHWARD. THE
WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE GULF TO SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA HOLDING STRONG. THE SE
CANADIAN TROUGH NOT ONLY PERSISTS, BUT GUIDANCE EVEN FURTHER OUT FROM
SUNDAY SHOW IT POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
BY THE MIDWEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA.
BECAUSE OF UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA, IT WILL MOVE MORE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. BUT IT SHOULD
FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL DESTABILIZE, AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.7" TO 1.9"
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. GIVEN THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PREVIOUS CONVECTION, ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL RUN OFF AND COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING, AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEK, STREAM AND RIVER WATER
LEVELS. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH FOR THE MOST PARTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERAL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS IN THESE
ENVIRONMENTS CAN BECOME VERY ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE, THUS CONSIDERATION
TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER SHOULD STORMS NEAR YOUR LOCATION. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S (WITH SOME MID
80S AT TIMES), AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS EARLIER, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS, HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF FOG IN THE
OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS, HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD FADE AS WE GO
INTO THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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