622
FXUS64 KHUN 251139
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 247 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM
TODAY THROUGH 10 PM ON TUESDAY FOR CULLMAN, MORGAN, MADISON,
JACKSON, MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES.
- ANOTHER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT EXISTS ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
BE CAREFUL DRIVING THIS MORNING WITH THE FOGGY CONDITIONS OUT
THERE. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, ALL
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE SEEING A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH A
FEW REPORTING DENSE FOG CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR. THERE IS A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY OUT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY, SO SLOW DOWN
AND DO NOT USE HIGH BEAMS WHEN DRIVING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY TO BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE TN VALLEY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ANCHORED IN EASTERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
RICH MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND SWING DISTURBANCES UP INTO THE TN
VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND TUG A COLD FRONT INTO
THE TN VALLEY TODAY. JUST HOW FAR THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH AND
WHERE IT GETS HUNG UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
TOTALS. LOOK FOR LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH THOSE VALUES INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON TO MID TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%). WITH PWATS REMAINING IN
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ~1.8", POOR LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK SHEAR, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY WHEN DRIVING, CREATE AN ADDITIONAL RISES IN
RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAMS, AND FLOODING CONCERNS. GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY THOSE EAST OF I-65 WHO HAVE
RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT STARTING AT 10AM TODAY UNTIL 10PM ON TUESDAY, FOR CULLMAN,
MORGAN, MARSHALL, MADISON, JACKSON, DEKALB COUNTIES. THESE
LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING 2-4" BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE SEEING 1-2".
REMEMBER, IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOOD WATERS, TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FORMS SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS FORCING OVER
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR WILL BE NEAR/EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WEST OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY SEE LESS RAINFALL OVERALL. FOR NOW, CONTINUING THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE SAME COUNTIES MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS
SHOULD LINE UP CLOSELY TO LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. LUCKILY, NOT SEEING MUCH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED (A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND
1000 J/KG PRIMARILY). CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
BUT IT WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. MOST GUIDANCE DISSIPATES ANY
CONVECTION AND REALLY DROPS OFF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AFTER 10 PM
ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BESIDES FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, RIVER FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR AREA BASINS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN, CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT LOOKS LIKE ON WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA IN GA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER FORCING EAST
OF THE AREA AND PUT NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INTO A REGIME OF SUBSIDENCE AND GIVE US A BREAK FROM
RAINFALL ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND A BIT HIGHER ON
WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN MANY AREAS,
DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LOW SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. RATHER SHARP, SMALLER SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING
WAS ALSO IN PLACE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. BUT MORE UPPER LOWS OVER SE CANADA WAS PRODUCING TROUGHING
ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHWARD. THE
WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE GULF TO SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA HOLDING STRONG. THE SE
CANADIAN TROUGH NOT ONLY PERSISTS, BUT GUIDANCE EVEN FURTHER OUT FROM
SUNDAY SHOW IT POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
BY THE MIDWEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA.
BECAUSE OF UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA, IT WILL MOVE MORE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. BUT IT SHOULD
FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL DESTABILIZE, AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.7" TO 1.9"
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. GIVEN THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PREVIOUS CONVECTION, ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL RUN OFF AND COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING, AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEK, STREAM AND RIVER WATER
LEVELS. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH FOR THE MOST PARTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERAL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS IN THESE
ENVIRONMENTS CAN BECOME VERY ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE, THUS CONSIDERATION
TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER SHOULD STORMS NEAR YOUR LOCATION. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S (WITH SOME MID
80S AT TIMES), AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS INTERRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CIGS CAN STILL BE EXPERIENCED, HOWEVER
THOSE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
OF RAIN MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LESSEN IN COVERAGE BY 06Z
LEAVING LOW MVFR CIGS IN PLACE TIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...JMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page