920
FXUS64 KHUN 251516
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM
TUESDAY FOR CULLMAN, MORGAN, MADISON, JACKSON, MARSHALL AND
DEKALB COUNTIES.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX. TO ITS EAST, DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS STREAMING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO
THE TN AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL WITH LIGHTER RETURNS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL AND THEN MOVE
NORTH INTO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. BASED ON THE
MORNING CAMS, THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN CENTRAL
AL AND THEN CLIPPING PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS REGION HAS BEEN HIT THE HARDEST WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
1.7-1.8 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD HAVE A REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT, CANNOT FULLY RULE
OUT AT LEAST A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SOMETHING TO WATCH IF WE CAN GET A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
NBM PROBS ARE ONLY SHOWING A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, THEREFORE FOR NOW LEAVING OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF PRECIP EACH DAY. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE EACH DAY, BUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS APPEAR
THE MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
GULF COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WE MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT EXTENDING OR EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH
IN FUTURE UPDATE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LOW SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. RATHER SHARP, SMALLER SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING
WAS ALSO IN PLACE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. BUT MORE UPPER LOWS OVER SE CANADA WAS PRODUCING TROUGHING
ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHWARD. THE
WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE GULF TO SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA HOLDING STRONG. THE SE
CANADIAN TROUGH NOT ONLY PERSISTS, BUT GUIDANCE EVEN FURTHER OUT FROM
SUNDAY SHOW IT POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
BY THE MIDWEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA.
BECAUSE OF UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA, IT WILL MOVE MORE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. BUT IT SHOULD
FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL DESTABILIZE, AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.7" TO 1.9"
WHICH WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. GIVEN THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
PREVIOUS CONVECTION, ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL RUN OFF AND COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING, AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEK, STREAM AND RIVER WATER
LEVELS. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH FOR THE MOST PARTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERAL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS IN THESE
ENVIRONMENTS CAN BECOME VERY ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE, THUS CONSIDERATION
TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER SHOULD STORMS NEAR YOUR LOCATION. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EXTENDED SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S (WITH SOME MID
80S AT TIMES), AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS INTERRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CIGS CAN STILL BE EXPERIENCED, HOWEVER
THOSE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
OF RAIN MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LESSEN IN COVERAGE BY 06Z
LEAVING LOW MVFR CIGS IN PLACE TIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...JMS
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