259
FXUS64 KHUN 270336
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ASIDE FROM A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW AL, WE HAVE HAD A DRY
BUT HUMID EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WE
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS OF ABOUT 930 PM AND
FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LIKE THEY ARE OVER NW
AL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
100% ALREADY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POTENTIAL
DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. A PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL HOLD STEADY AS AN UPPER WAVE ADVANCES EAST THROUGH
TX. THIS WILL KEEP THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AWAY FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THUS OUR ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS, PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP THE TN VALLEY IN A WARM
TROPICAL AIRMASS AND MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT A LARGER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW, BUT MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN A BLOCKING PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AND DROP SE
INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG ITS BASE. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MUGGY AIRMASS AS 60-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED
PWATS ARE PULLED IN FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALL IN ALL, THE MUGGY
AIRMASS PAIRED WITH SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL AMOUNT TO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES OF ABOUT 50-80% EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE THUNDER IS LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS, THERE ARE NO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY DURING THIS PERIOD.
RATHER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ALL WEEK, ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THE LONG TERM MAY
LEAD TO COMPOUNDING FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE TIME BEING. BELIEVE THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25
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