287
FXUS64 KHUN 271121
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TONIGHT,
TAKING WITH IT A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD. BEHIND IT, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. SFC OBS
SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS NOT REDUCED ANY VISIBILITIES
SO FAR, BUT WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE SO
USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.
WE REMAIN IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT US NUMEROUS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND IT WILL DO SO YET AGAIN
TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM
LOW CHANCES (30%) IN NW AL TO MEDIUM (60%) IN NE AL. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, WE WILL HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT CAN CREATE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN THE GREATEST RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST WEEK. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP THE TN VALLEY IN A WARM
TROPICAL AIRMASS AND MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT A LARGER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW, BUT MODEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN A BLOCKING PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AND DROP SE
INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG ITS BASE. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MUGGY AIRMASS AS 60-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED
PWATS ARE PULLED IN FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALL IN ALL, THE MUGGY
AIRMASS PAIRED WITH SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL AMOUNT TO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES OF ABOUT 50-80% EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE THUNDER IS LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS, THERE ARE NO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY DURING THIS PERIOD.
RATHER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ALL WEEK, ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THE LONG TERM MAY
LEAD TO COMPOUNDING FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS KEEPING MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THEREAFTER, BUT PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK
LIKE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT SO
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS
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