038
FXUS64 KHUN 271740
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER SHOT OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, WITH CONVECTION NOW BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP
ON REGIONAL RADARS UPSTREAM OF US (ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AL)
AT THIS HOUR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE N/NE
ACROSS THE CWFA.
AS IN DAYS PAST, LOCATIONS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THANKS TO MULTIPLE
DAYS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, SO ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ALONG AND E OF I-65, WHERE
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 6-8" OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK.
DESPITE THE RAINFALL EXPECTED, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 80-85F RANGE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, THE PATTERN WON'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXIST THIS
WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY W/~80% POPS) BEFORE A PATTERN SHIFT
OCCURS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THANKFULLY, THERE'S NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THAT
SAID, A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT THAT MAY PRODUCE
40MPH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH MOIST/SOUPY MORNINGS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN A BLOCKING PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AND DROP SE
INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG ITS BASE. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MUGGY AIRMASS AS 60-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED
PWATS ARE PULLED IN FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALL IN ALL, THE MUGGY
AIRMASS PAIRED WITH SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL AMOUNT TO
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES OF ABOUT 50-80% EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE THUNDER IS LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS, THERE ARE NO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY DURING THIS PERIOD.
RATHER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ALL WEEK, ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THE LONG TERM MAY
LEAD TO COMPOUNDING FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THRU LATE THIS
EVENING AT BOTH KHSV/KMSL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION TO THE TERMINALS, WITH LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY AT KHSV/KMSL SHOULD ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS, BUT GIVEN LOW CHANCES FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT,
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...12
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