474
FXUS64 KHUN 280540
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS OF ABOUT 9 PM, LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH NW AL. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A LINGERING
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. POST SUNSET, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ENERGY TO SUPPORT THESE SHOWERS AND MOST
SHOULD DIE OUT AROUND 06Z WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE REMAINING DRY FROM RAIN, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
INCREDIBLY MOIST AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S, KEEPING RH
VALUES BETWEEN 80-100%. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD DISSUADE
ANY FOG FORMATION HOWEVER ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FOG DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND MUGGY MORNING LOOKS LIKELY TOMORROW. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE, THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PICK UP BY MID
MORNING. WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH PWATS REMAINING
ELEVATED, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
STORMS TOMORROW SHOULD ANY POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL DAMPEN AS HIGH PRESSURE EVOLVES IN THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DO
LITTLE TO CHANGE OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP OUR HIGH PWATS AND DEW POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. IN TURN, THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR MEDIUM TO HIGH
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE AS ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. SHOULD STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST, UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
STALL ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS UNTIL LIKELY LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES DURING PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING HOURS. UPPER TROUGHING PAIRED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD TUESDAY, BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA AND A BREAK FROM THE WET AND HUMID PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN LATELY. ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS DURING THIS PERIOD, TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AROUND 09Z CREATING IFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THAT WILL
PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...JMS
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