554
FXUS64 KHUN 282321
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- MEDIUM-HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON
MONDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST
REASONING SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THUS FAR,
MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR GENERAL
REGION HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO A SURFACE WIND SHIFT AXIS (POSITIONED
NEAR THE AL-TN BORDER), THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL, AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AL (OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM A REMNANT MCV OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST). WITH TIME, OUTFLOW FROM EACH AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME CONSOLIDATED IN THE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA NOT RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT,
GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 0-2Z. ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT YET RAISED
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS EVENING, IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAME WIND SHIFT
AXIS BETWEEN 9-12Z FRIDAY, AS SSE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEAR RATHER LOW AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL INTO THE M-U 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS BENEATH AN
AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(CENTERED ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES) TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A
LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO EXIST TODAY IN THE LOW-
LEVELS, AS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES (IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC) AND A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK) OPENS INTO
A TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWAD INTO SOUTHERN KS. WITHIN
THE LOCALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION
BETWEEN 16-18Z IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE
CONFLUENCE AXIS INDUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE 0-2Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE
ONSET OF THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE L-M
80S (COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE U60S/NE TO M70S/SW)
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
(PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA). HOWEVER, GIVEN
LACK OF NOTABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE WIDELY
DISPERSED/UNORGANIZED AND SHOULD EXHIBIT SLOW/ERRATIC MOTIONS.
THUS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE GREATEST CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
INDUCING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTHERN GA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS WILL MAY RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL, WHICH
WILL SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD ONCE AGAIN
(M-U 60S), WITH ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
LATE THIS EVENING (PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
(INDUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING
LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS), AND LOWER LATITUDES WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE A MINOR INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER LIFT PROVIDED BY A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THE AXIS OF MOST WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION THE AXIS WILL MAKE, AND FOR THIS REASON
WE WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 60-80% RANGE FOR BOTH PERIODS. WITH THE
EARLY ONSET ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION (AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW), CAPE WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
ON SATURDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW
AROUND A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO FORCE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS THE LOCAL
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT A HIGHER RATE OF SPEED, THUS
REDUCING THE CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS (MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST, UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL STALL ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS UNTIL LIKELY LATE
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS. UPPER TROUGHING PAIRED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD
TUESDAY, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA AND A BREAK FROM
THE WET AND HUMID PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN LATELY. ONLY LOW CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
NORMS DURING THIS PERIOD, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OVER OR NEAR BOTH TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BRINGING A PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CIGS, IMPROVING LITTLE UNTIL
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW, PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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