970
FXUS64 KHUN 290255
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MEDIUM-HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL WHERE A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITS AND WAS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR EARLIER
STORMS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
LOW CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE
WARMER END OF NORMAL, FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TOMORROW AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND TROUGHING ADVANCING EAST
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ENHANCED LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS EAST, AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST BEGINNING LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A SATURATED MOISTURE COLUMN INDICATED BY PWATS NEAR 2",
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS OF TRAINING AND LOCATIONS THAT PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK. WITH A MORE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT, SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TOMORROW WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FEEL QUITE SOUPY AS PWATS STAY AROUND 1.8", AND
ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICKER
MOVING STORMS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING, WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PEAK IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS ARE HIGHEST. BE SURE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR THIS WEEKEND IF SPENDING TIME INDOORS AND
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF YOU HEAR THUNDER/SEE
LIGHTNING.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM, MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THIS
COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPRESS ON HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND BRING IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO BELOW 30% EACH AFTERNOON.
LIKEWISE, THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUR CURRENT MUGGY
DEW POINTS FURTHER SOUTH, REPLACING THEM WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. MODERATE TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OVER OR NEAR BOTH TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BRINGING A PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN IFR TO PERHAPS LIFR CIGS, IMPROVING LITTLE UNTIL
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW, PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25
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